so i was reading lauren's blog the other day about this probability of drawing cards in yugioh. and i wish to tell him its really v complicated! because i have tried doing it with some of my friends before i arrive at this conclusion.
dont believe?
lets see...
example, you have 3 gateway that you wish to calculate the probability of drawing them at the starting hand of 6, and the remaining 37 cards are irrelevant since we are only interested in finding out the probability for gateway and it will be extremely complex if you wish to add in magic/trap/monster etc. trust me.
we have this:
3 gateways drawn together and in this particular order (case 1):
G - G - G - O - O - O in which: G=gateway, O=others
3/40 x 2/39 x 1/38 x 1 x 1 x 1 = 0.01%
================================================================
3 gateways drawn together and in this particular order (case 2):
G - G - O - O - O - G
3/40 x 2/39 x 37/38 x 36/37 x 35/36 x 1/35 = 0.01%
================================================================
and then there are still so many cases to consider that we have to take in permutations to calculate how many cases there are and then to calculate the probability from there again...extremely tedious.
so in the end i give up and came up with something like this:
FINAL CASE(LOL) : CHANCES OF DRAWING 1 OR MORE GATEWAY:
1- P(drawing none gateway) = 1- (37/40 x 36/39 x 35/38 x 34/37 x 33/36 x 32/35)
= 0.394
= 39.4%
the 39.4% includes drawing 1, or 2 or 3 in your starting hand. to give and take a little, its about 4 out of 10 games.haha!
1 Comments:
aiyo... brain painful. just draw the cards apply skill and play!!!
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
:
<< Home